Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN), a leading casino and resort operator, has entered June under a historical cloud. According to data from Schaeffer’s Investment Research, the company’s stock has consistently struggled during this month over the past decade. Averaging a 3.29% decline each June for the last 10 years, Wynn ranks as the fourth-worst performer among all S&P 500 components in this period, with positive returns in just 30% of those years.
The stock’s dismal June track record makes it a notable laggard in the benchmark index. Wynn is also the only gaming company among the 25 worst-performing S&P 500 stocks for June. It shares company with two other travel and leisure names, suggesting the sector as a whole tends to underperform in early summer.
Sell in May and Go Away? Not Quite
The adage “Sell in May and go away” has long shaped investor psychology, warning of summer doldrums in the equity markets. Yet, this year, that rule hasn’t held up. Wynn defied seasonal expectations in May 2025, surging 12.74%—a strong outperformance compared to its typical behavior.
According to BlackRock, when the broader market posts gains through April, as it did in 2024 and early 2025, the “sell in May” effect tends to lose its bite. Their data shows that in such years, stocks are less likely to suffer seasonal pullbacks. However, in years when markets enter May in the red, the next five months often deliver subpar results, with just a 50% chance of market gains and an average return of -1.6%.
Seasonality vs. Fundamentals
Wynn’s persistent June weakness could be a signal of market efficiency rather than coincidence. Seasonal expectations—like increased casino traffic during summer—don’t always translate into higher stock prices. In fact, when widely accepted theories fail to pan out, markets often react negatively.
Despite a positive start to 2025, with Wynn shares up 5.08% year-to-date, warning signs remain. The company faces ongoing challenges in Macau, its most lucrative market, where growth has slowed significantly. Additionally, Wynn’s Las Vegas operations are contending with a three-month decline in gross gaming revenue (GGR), hinting at weakening consumer appetite.
Macro Pressures Add to June Risks
Broader macroeconomic forces could compound Wynn’s June struggles. Rising U.S.–China trade tensions threaten to further destabilize Macau’s casino sector, which relies heavily on Chinese tourism. Domestically, consumer sentiment may take a hit if new tariffs are introduced or if inflation concerns continue to mount.
There’s evidence of economic cooling already: forecasts for 2025 U.S. GDP growth were slashed from 2.3% in February to just 1.3% in May. That downgrade could weigh on corporate earnings—critical for a company like Wynn that relies on discretionary consumer spending.
Meanwhile, valuations across the S&P 500 have returned to premium levels, with the forward price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 20x FY1 earnings. BlackRock cautions that while such multiples were easier to justify during last year’s steady growth and policy clarity, today’s more uncertain environment may not support the same optimism.
Looking Ahead
While seasonal trends provide context, they are not destiny. Wynn’s strong May performance shows the stock has the capacity to break from historical norms. However, with headwinds in Macau, weakening domestic gaming metrics, and growing macroeconomic pressures, June 2025 may be another month where Wynn shareholders should proceed with caution.
Investors and analysts will be watching closely to see if the company can buck its long-standing June curse—or if history is destined to repeat itself once more.
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